DAYTONA BEACH -- Rick Santorum won the Iowa Caucus vote in more ways than some may realize. In fact, he and Romney split the top spot at 25% each with only a handful of votes separating them. Santorum started near the bottom, but surged at the end in Iowa.
His prize? A huge media splash, probably a large boost in donor contributions spurred on by non-stop TV coverage and possibly, though less likely this year, decisions by some of the less successful rival candidates to drop out of the race.
Ron Paul was about 4000 votes back with 21%. For the record Gingrich was fourth with 13%, Perry had 10%, Bachmann 5% and Huntsman 1%.
But none of this means that Santorum is the probable winner of the Republican nomination. It is far too early in the race and the Iowa Caucus has far too little importance to make any kind of prediction. The fact is that the Iowa Caucus is principally a media event – a demonstration of the extraordinary importance of the importance of television in today’s politics.
The Caucus rewards on-the-ground candidate organization. It is not a primary election and it decides no delegates, repeat no delegates to the Republican nominating convention. It is important because the media says so.
What it is, is a series of informal gatherings of organized activists, maybe as many as 120,000 of them, at homes and halls throughout Iowa’s 1774 precincts. They vote by secret ballot to elect delegates to the 99 county conventions where the county delegates vote to elect delegates to the Congressional District Convention and to the State Convention. The State Convention elects delegates to the GOP Presidential Nominating Convention. But these delegates are not committed to vote in keeping with the decisions of tonight’s caucuses.
The really weird thing is that by the time the State Convention gets around to electing actual delegates to the GOP Convention, the campaign will be almost over and those delegates will have little or no effect on any but the closest possible nomination race.
Iowa is not really representative of the United States as a whole. It is primarily rural. Ninety-two percent of its people are white and it currently enjoys an unemployment rate of only 5.7 percent. In 2010, Obama’s victory launched his successful primary campaign against Hillary. But only about half of the GOP winners in Iowa have gone on to win their nomination.
Iowa is not really representative of the United States as a whole. It is primarily rural. Ninety-two percent of its people are white and it currently enjoys an unemployment rate of only 5.7 percent. In 2010, Obama’s victory launched his successful primary campaign against Hillary. But only about half of the GOP winners in Iowa have gone on to win their nomination.
When it finally does get around to electing Republican Convention delegates, they will make up only about one percent of the total. Still, the Iowa Caucus’ fiercely-guarded position as the nation’s first act of presidential choice guarantees it a level of influence far beyond its true importance. That is so even this year, when Republican Party rule changes reduce the impact of all of the early caucuses and primaries.
For the past several decades, the GOP has run primaries and caucuses on a strict “winner-take-all” basis. But this year all primaries and caucuses held before April first will award delegates on the basis of proportional representation, meaning that every candidate will win delegates in proportion to the number of votes which he or she receives.
The exception is Florida, which will give all of its delegates to the winner but, because Florida advanced the date of its primary against the wishes of the national Republican Party, the state will be penalized half of its delegates to the national convention. With all candidates winning some of the delegates it will be hard for any one candidate to win enough votes in the primary process to carry the day early, as McCain did after Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 of 2010.
This will draw out the primary battle, offering an incentive for more candidates to stay in the race longer in hopes that a frontrunner will stumble, as so many have so far, or that they might pull off an upset in some state and enhance their own prospects. But the really interesting thing is the greater possibility of a brokered convention.
The more candidates who remain in the race and the longer they remain there, the greater is the chance that no candidate will enjoy a majority of delegates by the time of the national convention.
As delegates are only committed to vote in accordance with the outcome of their primary or caucus on the first convention ballot, the absence of a delegate majority would mean a brokered convention. In a brokered convention the party establishment basically negotiates the outcome in a series of meetings in the infamous “smoke-filled rooms”.
A number of ballots might be necessary before one candidate receives a majority and the eventual winner could even be someone who never ran in any of the primaries. Unlikely, but possible.
If that happens it would basically negate the entire primary process and it is not clear how the electorate would react to that. The last brokered Republican convention took place in 1948. Thomas Dewey was nominated and lost to incumbent President Harry Truman. For the Dems, the last brokered nominee was Adlai Stevenson in 1952, and he lost to Gen. Dwight Eisenhower. FDR was the last beneficiary of a brokered convention who actually won the election.
So, what does all of this mean for tonight’s winner – former Senator Rick Santorum ? Money and organization win elections. Media support is a major element of any successful campaign, but no candidate can stay in the field without good paid professionals, an army of enthusiastic volunteers and the money to support them and to buy media time. At this point, Santorum doesn’t have much of either.
Some say that Romney had a flat night as he failed to expand his support beyond the 23-25% which he has enjoyed from the beginning. But Romney has more money than any of his GOP rivals and he has had four years to build a nationwide organization. Romney is assumed to be the favorite of the Party establishment. He has advantages which will be hard to overcome unless he stumbles badly in New Hampshire, where he is expected to win easily. His next challenge will come in South Carolina, where the conservative vote is strong.
Some say that Romney had a flat night as he failed to expand his support beyond the 23-25% which he has enjoyed from the beginning. But Romney has more money than any of his GOP rivals and he has had four years to build a nationwide organization. Romney is assumed to be the favorite of the Party establishment. He has advantages which will be hard to overcome unless he stumbles badly in New Hampshire, where he is expected to win easily. His next challenge will come in South Carolina, where the conservative vote is strong.
However, as long as that vote is split between Santorum, Paul and perhaps others, Romney has a good chance of winning a plurality and sustaining his leading position until after April first, when he can hope to add to his totals in the “winner-take-all” primaries that follow.
Despite its lack of substantive importance, the Iowa Caucus seems to have locked Rick Santorum into the role of the Not-Romney candidate, unless he too stumbles or until his lack of money and organization lead him to a weak showing in one of the other early primaries. Now he has to prove that he is not a one-trick-pony. But he faces a hard choice.
If he challenges Romney in New Hampshire, where Romney is virtually the favorite son, he risks a devastating defeat. But if he skips New Hampshire for South Carolina, where his conservative stance would play better but where he will again split the vote with several like-minded rivals, he risks giving Romney a big free leg up.
Interestingly, Santorum may have to hope that Huntsman, who finished dead last in Iowa, but who has focused almost all of his effort on New Hampshire, can take enough of the vote in that state’s primary to serve as a sort of surrogate Not-Romney candidate there and weaken Romney before the South Carolina vote.
Ron Paul has long been well organized in Iowa and he enjoys a solid base of deeply committed supporters. But the conventional wisdom remains that he cannot win the Republican nomination and that he should not, as Obama and the Dems would easily defeat him.
If that view proves to be correct, the issues for Paul and for the nomination will be when he decides to abandon the race, to whom he throws his support and what he gets in return. Iowa was only the first step in a long and complex process. But at this beginning moment, it appears to me that Romney has the strongest hand.
The greatest visible threat to Romney right now is the chance that several of the conservative candidates will drop out of the race, leading their supporters to coalesce around a single rival to Romney’s right. But as I said, the new Republican rules militate against that.
Based on past caucuses it is not wise to make too much of Iowa. Oftimes candidates barely heard from in Iowa have emerged to win the nomination and that could happen again this year.
That said, in politics as in so many other things, it is wisest to follow the money. It may take a few weeks but the true impact of tonight’s caucus will become apparent when we can see how the donor money has flowed.
