By Stan Escudero To no one’s surprise, Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire Republican primary election. As votes are still being counted at 9:20 PM, with 46% of the precincts reporting, he has won 37% of the vote. A resident and former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, Romney owns a home in New Hampshire, has campaigned there extensively for almost five years and is regarded by many in the state as a favorite son.
Ron Paul is holding second place with 23 percent and Jon Huntsman, who focused virtually his entire campaign effort on New Hampshire, is in third with 17 percent. Rick Santorum, who lost the Iowa Caucuses to Romney by only 8 votes, and Newt Gingrich, whose strong attacks on Romney have raised GOP ire, are fighting it out for fourth place with 10 percent each. Texas Governor Rick Perry brought up the rear.
New Hampshire’s is the first real primary of the presidential campaign year but, like Iowa, it elects few delegates and is primarily important as a media event which influences the pundits and, more significantly, the donor community. A poor showing in New Hampshire can so impact the money stream that it has often caused weak candidates to drop out of the race altogether.
That said, because the GOP has this year changed its primary rules to award delegates to candidates in primaries and caucuses through April first on a proportional basis, more of the lower-tier contenders may decide to stay in the fight in hopes that the front runner will stumble. Romney’s victory tonight puts him on an historical track.
No Republican has ever won the White House without first winning the South Carolina primary and no Republican has ever won South Carolina without first winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. Romney has just won both.
New Hampshire is an atypical state. It is 96% white and was the only New England state to vote for Bush in 2000. But New Hampshire just gave Romney a two-tiered bump going into the South Carolina primary – a more conservative state where Romney’s moderate stances on some of the issues will find less support than in New Hampshire.
First, Romney is the winner of both Republican contests so far in the primary season. His near rival in Iowa, Rick Santorum, did far less well in New Hampshire, while Romney is now more than ever seen as the most electable of the Republican contenders.. Second, New Hampshire is sending a phalanx of GOP candidates against Romney in conservative South Carolina.
There they can all be expected to attack Romney as the front-runner but they will split the anti-Romney vote between them. A single conservative rival could defeat Romney in South Carolina but he stands a far better chance of winning a plurality of that state’s primary vote next week when facing a group of rivals.
A victory in South Carolina, even a narrow one, would give Romney a strong head of steam coming into the very important Florida primary on January 31st. And four victories in a row would make it very hard for other candidates to challenge him successfully. So, expect Romney to go all out in the next two contests.
