DAYTONA BEACH SHORES -- In the past week Mitt Romney won big in Nevada, where he took 50% of the vote (55% in 2008) and Rick Santorum swept the three beauty contests in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado. Ho-Hum.
In Mormon-heavy Nevada, Romney’s win was a no-brainer. His loss in Colorado was a surprise to those who looked at his 2008 victory there over John McCain until one realizes that Romney was cast as the more conservative candidate in that election.
Gingrich was not on the ballot in Missouri, which helped to solidify the not-Romney vote in that state and Gingrich campaigned very little in Minnesota and Colorado. All three of these states are quite conservative and enjoy a substantial evangelical minority likely to support Santorum over either Romney or Gingrich. No delegates were awarded in any of Tuesday’s contests.
Missouri will delay its choice for several months and then their delegates will not be chosen based on their caucus. Minnesota and Colorado’s choices are influenced by their caucuses, but they too will not pick their delegates until later in the spring. And the delegates from all four states will be awarded proportionately.
Romney’s people are understandably and accurately downplaying the importance of these contests though, had he won, they would be touting them as further evidence of the certainty of his eventual nomination. His opponents are describing them as bellwethers of Romney’s weakness and of their respective strengths. They are neither.
Despite the relative unimportance of the past week’s contests, the media is taking the opportunity to hype their results as major focal points in the rivalry for the Republican nomination. Expect to see and hear the following themes during the coming week:
• Tuesday’s results underline the continuing unhappiness among many Republican voters with the probability of Romney as their party’s nominee.
• Santorum has established himself as the principal challenger to Romney for the nomination.
• Tuesday’s vote has cancelled out the momentum which Romney gained in Florida and Nevada and shifts public attention to his rivals, particularly to Santorum.
Here’s my take: Nevada and Tuesday’s three contests do not matter very much. Romney will now concentrate on Arizona and Michigan, which vote in three weeks and where he will do better. But what really matters in coming weeks is March sixth – Super Tuesday – when ten states will hold their primaries and caucuses and award, proportionately, nearly 500 delegates.
Remember, 1,144 delegates are needed to win the nomination. Because so much is happening on March 6, the advantages will lie with the best funded and organized campaign. That would be Romney’s campaign.
Santorum may well turn out to be the primary beneficiary of Tuesday’s races but only if he can transmogrify his victories into campaign cash to mount a better organized and more effective campaign to press Romney by overtaking Gingrich.
Look for that cash to flow largely through Santorum’s Super PAC, called “Red, White and Blue” and headed by wealthy mutual fund executive Foster Friess.
If Santorum can raise enough money to out organize and surpass Gingrich on Super Tuesday, by March 7th he could actually become Romney’s primary challenger (no pun intended). But Santorum has not yet earned that status.
Gingrich has shifted his short term focus to Ohio, a Super Tuesday state with a complex media market and voter base, similar in some respects to Florida. If he does well there he might take enough of Ohio’s substantial delegate base to pad his totals and stay politically healthy.
So far Gingrich is drawing large and interested crowds in Ohio but he needs to make some kind of dramatic positive public splash before Super Tuesday to increase the flow of campaign donations and to refocus media attention back on him.
Counting as well on a solid win on Super Tuesday from his native Georgia, thereafter Gingrich should make a big push in Texas and continue to press his conservative southern state strategy. Paul will hang in there come Hell or high water, gambling on a brokered convention and his diehard supporters to increase his influence over the Party platform.
This past week’s results will ensure that the conservative Republican primary vote will remain divided, helping Romney, who remains the strongest of the Republican contenders. Not this past week but Super Tuesday will be the real bellwether in the race for the Republican nomination.
Although the delegates chosen then will also be divided proportionately among the four candidates, this large group of simultaneous contests should demonstrate the depth of Romney’s support, or lack thereof, among committed Republicans.
A string of Romney victories could pretty well seal the deal for him, though his funding and national organization would still leave him with a strong chance even if he stumbles badly on March 6. Super Tuesday is the one to watch.
NSB News is a 24/7 Internet newspaper in New Smyrna Beach accessed through NSBNews.net and VolusiaNews.net, launched April 7, 2008, by award-winning breaking news and investigative reporter Henry Frederick and award-winning blogger Peter Mallory. It is the first fully-online newspaper in Florida and among the few in the nation with continuous editorial content picked up by Google News Directories.
